Israel: elections to the 26th Knesset
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 120 seats · official results due 4 November 2026
Last updated:
Polls and projected seats
Poll figures are paused during Israel's legal pre-election poll blackout and will return after the polls close on Tuesday 27 October.
Last time: 2022 official results
Share of valid votes; the dashed line is the 3.25% threshold. Seats won in brackets.
Table
| List | Votes | % of valid votes | seats | Bloc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 1,115,336 | 23.41 | 32 | Lists that formed the 37th government |
| Yesh Atid | 847,435 | 17.79 | 24 | All other lists |
| Religious Zionism | 516,470 | 10.84 | 14 | Lists that formed the 37th government |
| National Unity | 432,482 | 9.08 | 12 | All other lists |
| Shas | 392,964 | 8.25 | 11 | Lists that formed the 37th government |
| United Torah Judaism | 280,194 | 5.88 | 7 | Lists that formed the 37th government |
| Yisrael Beytenu | 213,687 | 4.48 | 6 | All other lists |
| Ra'am | 194,047 | 4.07 | 5 | All other lists |
| Hadash–Ta'al | 178,735 | 3.75 | 5 | All other lists |
| Labor | 175,992 | 3.69 | 4 | All other lists |
| Meretz | 150,793 | 3.16 | 0 | All other lists |
| Balad | 138,617 | 2.91 | 0 | All other lists |
| Jewish Home | 56,793 | 1.19 | 0 | All other lists |
Source: Central Elections Committee. Valid votes: 4,764,742; threshold 3.25% = 154,855.
Election night: live count
The Central Elections Committee count starts on the night of 27 October 2026. Counted votes and projected seats will appear here with the time of each update; nothing shown here is final until the committee publishes official results.
Bloc grouping follows the grouping used by the cited outlets (Channel 12, Walla, Kan 11, Maariv, Channel 13); it describes reported alignment, not a forecast of any coalition.
Analysis
Israel's 26th Knesset
Israel votes on Tuesday 27 October 2026. Surplus-vote agreements are due on 16 October 2026, voting at Israel's diplomatic missions abroad took place on 15 October 2026 (Israel time, 14 Oct 23:00 to 16 Oct 06:00), soldiers' early voting opens on the evening of 20 October 2026, and official results are expected on 4 November 2026 (single source, not yet confirmed).
Poll figures are paused during Israel's legal pre-election poll blackout and will return after the polls close on Tuesday 27 October.
Why the threshold dominates. The threshold is 3.25% of valid votes. Because 3.25% of 120 seats is 3.9 seats, the smallest list that passes gets about four, so a list polling 4 is either in with 4 or out with 0. If a list in the bloc falls out, its votes are wasted and every other list's quota goes down. That's why a single list near 3.25% can swing a bloc by four seats on its own.
Surplus agreements. Once the pairs are filed on 16 October 2026, our Show the math panel will run Bader-Ofer with them. A pair can gain a seat that neither list would win alone, but only if both lists pass the threshold.
Read the analysis: strategic voting and the 3.25% threshold →
Explainer deck: how votes become seats, from the 3.25% threshold to 61 →
Explainer: split or resignation, two ways to leave a list →
Show the math
Seats are allocated by the Bader-Ofer method.
- Threshold: only lists with
vi ≥ 0.0325 × Vvalidtake part. - Quota:
q = V / 120, where V is the total votes of the lists that passed the threshold. One seat ≈ q votes. - First round:
si = floor(vi / q). - Remaining seats go one at a time to the list (or surplus-vote pair, counted as one unit) with the highest
vi / (si + 1); inside a pair the seats are split again with the same rule. - Effective number of parties:
N = 1 / Σ pi². - Gallagher index:
LSq = √( ½ Σ (vi − si)² ), with vote and seat percentages.
Show the math: how the Knesset's 120 seats are divided (Bader-Ofer)
- Threshold. Only lists with vi ≥ 0.0325 × Vvalid take part.
- Quota. q = Vqualifying / 120, where Vqualifying is the total vote of the lists that passed.
- First round. si = floor(vi / q).
- Remaining seats. One at a time, to whichever unit has the highest vi / (si + 1). A surplus-vote pair counts as one unit, with its votes and seats combined.
- Inside a pair. The pair's seats are split again between the two lists by the same rule. A pair only counts if both lists pass the threshold.
Effective number of parties: N = 1 / Σ pi2, with pi the vote (or seat) share as a fraction.
Gallagher index: LSq = √( ½ Σ (vi − si)2 ), with vi and si as vote and seat percentages. 0 means perfectly proportional.
Worked example (illustrative numbers, not a poll or a result)
Seven lists, 4,005,000 valid votes: A 1,200,000; B 950,000; C 600,000; D 470,000; E 390,000; F 300,000; G 95,000. C and D have a surplus-vote agreement.
- Threshold: 0.0325 × 4,005,000 = 130,162.5. G (95,000) is out.
- Vqualifying = 3,910,000, so q = 3,910,000 / 120 = 32,583.33.
- First round: A 36, B 29, C 18, D 14, E 11, F 9 = 117. Three seats left.
- Seat 118: E 390,000/12 = 32,500 beats A 1,200,000/37 = 32,432 and C+D 1,070,000/33 = 32,424. E gets it.
- Seat 119: A 32,432 beats C+D 32,424. A gets it.
- Seat 120: C+D 32,424 beats B 950,000/30 = 31,667 and A 1,200,000/38 = 31,579. C+D gets it.
- Inside C+D (33 seats): pair quota 1,070,000/33 = 32,424; C floor(600,000/32,424) = 18, D floor(470,000/32,424) = 14, total 32. Last seat: C 600,000/19 = 31,579 vs D 470,000/15 = 31,333. C gets it.
- Final: A 37, B 29, C 19, D 14, E 12, F 9, G 0.
- Without the agreement: seat 120 goes to B (31,667), since C alone has 31,579 and D alone 31,333. Result: B 30, C 18. The agreement moved one seat from B to C.
- N (votes) = 5.05; N (seats) = 4.81. Gallagher index = 1.92, mostly from G's 2.37% wasted vote.
Rule of thumb for reading polls: one seat ≈ q votes. Every seat figure we project is labelled "Our projection" and comes from these steps.