United States midterms
Tuesday 3 November 2026 · House, Senate and governors
Last updated:
Results and polls
No numbers yet. Figures appear here only with their source.
Analysis
US midterms: a Democratic lead on the generic ballot, with the Senate map the open question
Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November 2026 for all 435 House seats, about a third of the Senate and a majority of governorships.
The generic ballot, poll by poll. We don't republish averages. These are recent likely-voter polls, each linked to its source: - Rasmussen Reports (1 and 4–7 October 2026, 1,781 LV, ±2 points): Democrats 49%, Republicans 44%. - Cygnal (7–10 October 2026, 1,500 LV, ±2.5 points): Democrats 51%, Republicans 42%. - TrueDot.ai for NewsNation/DDHQ (5–9 October 2026, 974 LV, ±3.2 points): Democrats 49%, Republicans 42%. - Morning Consult (6–12 October 2026, 17,654 LV): Democrats 49.7%, Republicans 43.1% (single source, not yet confirmed).
Margins run from 5 points (Rasmussen) to 9 (Cygnal). Rasmussen notes Republicans led its generic ballot 48% to 45% before the November 2024 election, which is an eight-point net swing in that one series.
Show the math: why the House and Senate behave differently. The House is decided seat by seat, so a national lead turns into seats through how districts are drawn, and a party can win the popular vote and still fall short of 218. The Senate this year is decided state by state, with many races in states that lean Republican, so a national lead translates less directly. We'll show the current composition and the seats each party must flip once we've sourced them from the Clerk of the House and Senate.gov. We're not printing forecasters' win probabilities here.
Results night. Official results come from each state's Secretary of State or election board. Race calls are ours, labelled "Our projection", or credited to the outlet that made the call. Polls close from 01:00 Israel time on 4 November 2026.
Show the math
Control of the House needs 218 of 435 seats. Control of the Senate needs 51 of 100, or 50 + the Vice President's tie-break. Any projection shown here is labelled as ours and comes with its equations.
Show the math: House and Senate
Control: House majority = 218 of 435. Senate control = 51 of 100, or 50 plus the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.
Generic-ballot margin: m = pD − pR. For example, Cygnal (7–10 October 2026): 51 − 42 = D+9. Rasmussen (1 and 4–7 October 2026): 49 − 44 = D+5.
Margin on the lead: roughly twice the stated margin of error. For Cygnal, ±2.5 means about ±5 on the 9-point lead.
Seats vs votes: Gallagher index LSq = √( ½ Σ (vi − si)2 ) shows how far the House seat split strays from the national vote split. We'll compute it from official results after 3 November 2026. We're not computing it from polls.
The current composition and the number of seats each party needs to flip will be added once they're sourced from the Clerk of the House and Senate.gov. This field is empty for now.