Brazil presidential runoff
Sunday 25 October 2026 · Lula (PT) vs Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
Last updated:
Results and polls
First round, 4 October 2026, share of valid votes, as reported by Senado Notícias at 99.97% of ballot boxes counted. The runoff count appears here on the night of 25 October 2026.
| Candidate / list | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 47.04% | Senado Notícias (Agência Senado), 4 Oct 2026, 23:02 Brasília, 99.97% counted |
| Lula (PT) | 45.15% | Senado Notícias (Agência Senado), 4 Oct 2026, 99.97% counted |
| Escritor Augusto Cury (Avante) | 2.89% | Senado Notícias, 4 Oct 2026 |
| Renan Santos (Missão) | 2.25% | Senado Notícias, 4 Oct 2026 |
| Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) | 2.18% | Senado Notícias, 4 Oct 2026 |
Analysis
Brazil's runoff: a two-point first round, a close second
Brazil votes again on Sunday 25 October 2026. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is seeking a fourth term.
Where they start. In the first round on 4 October 2026, with 99.97% of ballot boxes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 47.04% of valid votes (56,098,457) and Lula 45.15% (53,846,396), per Senado Notícias. Turnout was 78.92% of registered voters. The TSE's final count, as relayed by HubPolítico, is 47.03% to 45.16% (single source, not yet confirmed).
Show the math: where the other 7.8% goes. About 7.8% of valid votes went to candidates who are now out. The largest were Augusto Cury (Avante) at 2.89%, Renan Santos (Missão) at 2.25% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 2.18%. For Lula to pass 50% of valid votes, he needs roughly 4.85 of those 7.8 points (50 − 45.15), about 62% of them, if turnout and blank/null votes stay the same. Flávio Bolsonaro needs about 2.96 points (50 − 47.04), about 38%. Turnout changes can move the result as much as transfers can, which is why both campaigns are courting the 21.08% who stayed home.
The first runoff polls. These are individual polls, each registered with the TSE: - Datafolha (fieldwork 6–7 October 2026, 2,520 interviews, ±2 points, BR-02949/2026): Flávio Bolsonaro 49%, Lula 45%. Valid votes: 52% to 48%. - AtlasIntel, PoderData/Aya and Ipespe (released 8–10 October 2026) show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 4–6 points in valid votes. Vox Brasil (released 9 October 2026) shows Lula ahead, 50.9% to 49.1%. These four come from a single round-up so far and are marked as single-source. - Quaest (fieldwork 10–13 October 2026) and a new Datafolha (13–15 October 2026) are due on 14 and 15 October 2026. We'll add them when we've read the releases.
What to watch. Most polls put the gap at or near the edge of the margin of error. A 4-point lead with ±2 points on each candidate means the gap itself can be off by close to twice that. On the night of 25 October, results come in from the TSE from 17:00 Brasília time (22:00 Israel time; Israel returns to winter time that morning).
Every number on this page links to its source. Our projections are labelled as ours.
Show the math
The runoff is a straight two-candidate vote. The winner needs more than half of valid votes (blank and spoiled ballots are excluded): sharei = vi / (vLula + vBolsonaro), winner if sharei > 0.5.
Show the math: the runoff
Valid-vote share: pi = vi / (Vtotal − blank − null). A candidate wins with pi > 50%.
Transfer needed: from the first round on 4 October 2026, Lula needs 50 − 45.15 = 4.85 points of the 7.81 points held by eliminated candidates (≈ 62%). Flávio Bolsonaro needs 50 − 47.04 = 2.96 (≈ 38%). This assumes turnout and blank/null votes stay the same.
Converting a poll to valid votes: Datafolha (6–7 October 2026): 49 / (49 + 45) = 52.1%, and 45 / 94 = 47.9%, which matches the published 52% to 48%.
Margin on the gap: with a ±2-point margin per candidate in a two-way race, the margin on the lead is roughly twice that, about ±4 points.
Sources: Senado Notícias, 4 October 2026; Datafolha, BR-02949/2026.