Elections 2026

Israel votes for the 26th Knesset on Tuesday 27 October 2026. This page gathers my writing on the campaign in one place: the polls, the arithmetic of a 61-seat majority, the lists and alliances, and the two stories from outside the campaign that keep pressing in on it. Where an election fact matters, I go by the Central Elections Committee record. Where something is not yet confirmed, I say so.

Polls

Polls are a snapshot, not a forecast. I read them in blocs, not headlines: who is near 61, who is not, and which parties decide the difference. In recent weeks neither bloc has reached 61, and the Arab parties hold the balance.

• The 61 That Isn’t There

Coalition arithmetic

A Knesset majority is 61 of 120 seats. Seats come from votes, but governments come from partners, and partners come with red lines. These pieces work through who can sit with whom, and what each path to 61 would cost.

• The 61 That Isn’t There
• Four Parties, Two Agreements: Surplus Arithmetic After List Lock (LinkedIn)
• Right or Palestine? The Arithmetic Behind Golan’s Ra’am Remark

Party lists

Who is on the ballot paper, under which name, and with whom. These pieces follow the lists and alliances as they were filed, and what the campaign has made of them.

• The Speech Came Home to a Ballot
• The Sukkah and the Ballot

The FZ1073 file

In the middle of Sukkot, an attack in the cockpit of flydubai flight FZ1073 became a test of courage, of a locked door, and of a young partnership between Israel and the Emirates. This file follows the story in order, and only on confirmed facts.

• The Door That Was Opened: FZ1073 and the Fragile Shelter
• Four Passengers and a Captain from India
• What the Prosecutor Said: FZ1073, the Inquiry and the Captain

The Iran/US file

The confrontation between Washington and Tehran shapes Israel’s security and the campaign’s mood. These pieces follow American pressure on the Iranian regime and what it means for Israel, with every claim checked against the wires before it runs.

• No Terror Army on the Ridge: Hermon, Iran’s Regime, and the Border Test (LinkedIn) · X
• The Easy Way or the Hard Way: Washington’s Three-Part Pressure on Tehran

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